The Seneca Effect (Bardi, 2017), as explained by Ugo Bardi, views complex systems through a systems-thinking lens. Drawing on Seneca’s observation that ”increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid,” the book suggests that systems grow gradually but collapse swiftly due to fragilities, critical thresholds, and negative feedback loops.
In contrast, Everett Rogers’ ”Diffusion of Innovations” (Rogers, 2003) explains how innovations spread through social systems, from innovators to early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. Network effects, where a product’s value increases with its user base, accelerate adoption.
The Seneca curve, with slow growth and rapid collapse, contrasts with the viral adoption curve, or ”Hype curve”, which exhibits rapid growth followed by a slower decline. Rogers’ model, driven by social contagion and positive feedback, leads to swift adoption, but enthusiasm may wane as market saturation or limitations emerge.
From a system dynamics perspective, the Seneca Effect is fuelled by negative feedback loops that amplify vulnerabilities, causing rapid collapse. Conversely, the Hype curve is propelled by positive feedback loops, such as network effects and social influence, accelerating adoption but potentially diminishing over time, leading to a gradual decline.